In February 2023, the world was abuzz with the now-infamous “Chinese spy balloon” incident, which quickly dominated the news cycle. At the time, I lightly remarked on one of my social platforms that this might be more spectacle than substance. I even half-jokingly came up with an economic model where one player had the option to “spy” or “not spy” and the other had the option to “shoot” or “not shoot”. Both the Nash equilibrium in the static game and the subgame perfect equilibrium in the sequential game pointed to the outcome “not spy, shoot”.

Fast forward seven months to a recent revelation by Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Speaking to CBS News, Milley explained that the balloon was unintentionally diverted from its original route by winds and ended up drifting over the continental United States. The device, it turns out, did not collect any intelligence or transmit any data to the PRC.

Regular readers of this blog are well aware of my views on China. While I’ve always maintained a nuanced perspective on the challenges posed by the PRC to the U.S. and the Western world at large, this balloon episode stands out as an interesting example of how narratives, once established, can overshadow reality. Ironically, the media’s uncritical role in the entire scenario bears a striking resemblance to China’s state-sanctioned propaganda within the Great Firewall.

The “Chinese spy balloon” downfall (pun intended) serves as a stark reminder of two things: the importance of evidence-based judgment and the need for cool heads to shape our perceptions. As people navigate this complex geopolitical landscape in this era of constant (mis)information, they should remain discerning and deliberate in their responses. When the stakes are so high, clear-headedness is not only a virtue, it’s a necessity.